Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Is Wolf Crying Wolf?

I rather hope so. If not, then Bill Deagle's predictions from last week are going to materialise a lot sooner than he realised.

Naomi's call to arms frightens me and I don't even live there!

I hope - but I'm not entirely confident - that she's gone off half cocked. Of course, I have the benefit of having watched 2 full weeks of history unfold since her call and that 2 weeks has been packed with some fascinating history!

It's just one week after Bill Deagle's predicted trigger date and, much as I'd like to gloat that the world didn't go up in flames, he never actually predicted that it would (at least not last Tuesday) and I certainly cannot argue that events since have falsified his hypothesis. I think he could reasonably argue that the global events and the reactions they have provoked have been sufficiently large scale to qualify as his trigger.

I'm not even inclined to quibble too much about his not hitting the date smack on the nose. The biggest event on his predicted date (Tuesday 7 October) was the collapse of Iceland. Significant, I'll concede, but not on the cataclysmic scale. But the parallel collapse of global markets, subsequent nationalisation of a large percentage of Western Banks and resurrection of the markets: those events really are on the right sort of scale.

Nevertheless, I'm groping for a few straws to clutch at. I think Wolf's analysis is flawed. For a start, she places considerable weight (as one of her 10 Steps to Fascism) on the hyping up of an internal or external threat to provoke panic. She - along with some opponents of the initial American Bailout plan - argues that, right now, the financial crisis is that hyped up threat. I can't accept that. I really don't think it's hyped up at all. I don't think she's fully grasping the sheer scale of what's going on in the Financial world.

This is a double edged sword however. She might well be connecting the right dots but for the wrong reason. She seems to think those positioning for a totalitarian takeover (and I don't dispute the positioning) are manipulating the crisis in order to make a case for that takeover. In contrast, I think it's more likely that the "leaders of the free world" have a pretty clear idea of what will happen if and when the world and his dog wakes up and realises that the entire global monetary system is the biggest confidence trick ever invented and there is no more reason to believe in it than to believe in fairies. And we all know what happens when we stop believing in fairies.

In this "optimistic" scenario, the American Totalitarian option, for which they are obviously preparing, is a genuine contingency plan for what happens if the bubble really does burst.

Bill Deagle's visions are fully compatible with what Wolf is describing and these bleak scenarios are definitely a possible result of the inevitable crisis which would follow such a collapse. Nevertheless, in arguing that the situation is being hyped up, Wolf is taking one step beyond where I'm currently prepared to follow.

Given the social and economic collapse which would follow the collapse of the money bubble, you could certainly argue that the Police State measures, the homeland security budget allocations to State PDs, the unprecedented and unconstitutional deployment of National rather than State militia are all "prudent" preparations for the Martial Law which will be necessary when the population realises that the infrastructure of modern society is about to disintegrate and up to half the human race is likely to die as a result. How else can the ultra wealthy protect their property from the ravenous hordes other than with overt military force?

And such an outcome is still a very real possibility. If the Insurance market really is trading at the $516 Trillion dollar level, (as opposed to the "modest" $62 Trillion I spoke of last week) this implies truly astronomical levels of fraud and corruption in the system which will be exposed as soon as any major claimant is refused the compensation they think they have paid for. That's when the shit will really hit the fan.

But I'm beginning to perceive one or two small rays of hope.

First and foremost, none of the players can afford for the system to collapse - even if it means they themselves have to take the hit. Consider the biggest Creditors, like China, for example. What would happen if they pushed America over the edge? Not only would they force America to default, they would, in the process, lose 99% of the value of their credit, lose their most valuable market, create the conditions for a fascist America which would still retain the worlds largest nuclear arsenal and would now be very pissed off with China.

The irony, incidentally - of Red China being one of America's main creditors and not being able to afford to let the Capitalist State collapse - is orgasmic.

But that logic, to a greater or lesser extent, is true of almost every player in the Global Financial market, whether or not America owes them any money. Because the Dollar is the world's Reserve Currency (link added 23/10/2008) and there are no immediate viable alternatives, NOBODY can afford to let the system fail. So it's quite likely, in my view, that nobody will dare to push the button that makes it fail.

Secondly, just looking at the $516 Trillion. Given the value of the global economy is a mere tenth of that ludicrous figure, it is arithmetically obvious that at least 90% of the "money" or nominal value which comprises that gargantuan sum CANNOT be real. So - with luck, what might happen if the bubble bursts - apart from a bunch of ferrets fighting in a sack over who gets to keep the 2 or 3% of real value - is that no REAL damage will hit the REAL economy. Perhaps the worst that will really happen is that a few of the very rich will get slightly richer and a lot of the very rich will get somewhat poorer.

Yeah, I know that looks wildly optimistic, but remember the general guide: Follow the Money. I genuinely can't see how ANYONE - with the possible exception of the Voluntary Human Extinction movement - could possibly benefit from the total collapse of the system, so I don't believe anyone will provoke it. And, as we're seeing, the capitalist governments are actually taking measures which are beginning to look credible in the eyes of the market - who, fortunately, seem to be blissfully unaware of the risk of the bigger Insurance bubble bursting and are only concerned with the credit crunch and lowering the inter bank rate.

Now, of course, I may be wrong, the bubble will burst, in a worst case rather than best case scenario, and the entire global trading and capital system will go up in flames, taking half the human race with it. And this may be exactly the scenario the Police State is preparing for. If we really want to milk the possibilities, we could speculate that they will await the outcome of the US election before they press the button. If McCain gets it, the button is handed over to the trusted puppet to press if and when he's instructed to do so. This has the advantage of continuing the illusion of "democracy".

But if Obama wins, and the decision to go Total has already been made, then perhaps we can expect a suitable chain of events to be engineered (probably including the assassination of the President Elect) in order to justify the imposition of Martial Law for "as long as the incumbent President sees fit". A new election will be scheduled for the following November, but it will always be nudged a little further into the future...

The question is, what if the money bubble doesn't burst? It will not then be in the interests of the money men to let their puppets press the wealth destroying button. In which case, Obama will come to power, spend the next four years pretending to run the country like a normal president and everything will carry on as before. Nobody would ever know how close we came to "the end days".

We have to hope that Wolf IS crying Wolf, or else all bets are off.


Unknown said...

To me it doesn't look like this is being manipulated to bring in the police states of America, but they are definitely preparing for that contingency. This house of cards they built was bound to crumble under its own weight eventually. Anyone who didn't think so was living in a fantasy land. Like you said when you stop believing in fairies they go away. So much uncertainty is ahead of us. I have been preparing for what looks like hard times and also making sure those close to me understand and prepare too.

Harry Stottle said...

I'm intrigued.
a)What preparations have you been making and
b) how do your nearest and dearest react to these "forbodings of doom"?

Unknown said...

I've been keeping my family and friends up to date on all the things I have learned and current events since 9/11, so none of this has been a shock to them. They listen but I don't come out wild eyes screaming about the sky falling. Just pass on what I see happening and my worries in a calm manner.

Now as for preparations. Since I live in Florida many of these are common to hurricane preparedness only now I have been making plans for more long term. Trying to put away dry and canned goods for 6 months. Water filtration equipment. Extra fishing tackle, and made sure our cast nets are in good shape. Got stuff to make a rocket stove, and I have made a couple of these with some fuel for them. Extra bottles of rubbing alcohol for disinfecting.

Also something that I have always felt was key is increasing my knowledge base. I picked up a book that shows edible plants that are in my state. I am already pretty handy with plants, but I have been printing out organic gardening information. How to tie different knots and snares. Figure the more I know or have on hand the better off we will be.

Harry Stottle said...

Well it's good to know someone's going to be prepared!

Unknown said...

Getting prepared has helped me keep things in perspective. That's not always easy when I get all this doom and gloom from the various sources on the net, so I take a breath and back away to do something productive.

I like seeing your view on things for perspective too. You will have different ideas and catch things I missed. Thanks a lot for putting your thoughts out there for us around the world.

Harry Stottle said...

glad to be of service sir

Harry Stottle said...

This is informative. And reduces the potential scale of the problem considerably below the $516 Trillion story. Not only in overall size but in explaining that the bulk of the $54.6 Trillion is in the form of "outstanding contracts".

Which means that if, for example, there is a chain of 10 insurers such that I borrow $1 million from you; you take out insurance against my defaulting with a bank. They take out insurance against you needing to make a claim on them and so on, you end up with 10 contracts to insure slightly lower slices of the original million. So if I default, you claim your insurance from the bank, they claim from their insurers and so on.

The "real" money is limited to the original million dollars, even though the 10 contracts may add up to nearly 10 million. Hence (as we suspected but didn't understand why) the $54.6 trillion isn't real money. The real money is probably a tiny fraction of that - but still enough to trigger a financial collapse if it is defaulted...

Unknown said...

That's good to know. Because honestly those numbers were boggling my mind. Mostly for the fact that I couldn't figure out where and how this money came to be. Still something to be concerned about but at least more manageable on the large scale.